Trade the chart. Look at the $SPY 1 hr. Was that a bearish set up? Powell was just the catalyst for a bullish set up.
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
More on Overnight 50 Retracements
More backtesting on this.
Weds last week: opened just below the overnight 50 and hit it in the first minute and eventually retraced to it after a breakout at 11.55 am (5 min candle):
Tuesday (11/22) last week, just missed the 50 by a tick, but was very close. Short off open targeting the 50 was the trade despite the gap up. Got to the 50 in about 10 minutes (2nd 5 min candle).
Monday last week - pop off open and then retrace to the o/n 50 in six minutes. That would have been a little harder of a trade than the rest, but now we have gone back a full trading week and it’s hit the 50 every time. I know on Friday the 18, it did it as well as Thursday the 17th. So from 11/17 to 11/30, the overnight 50 retraced during RTH every single time. The longest it took to get there was one hour. Most times it gets there within the first 15 minutes.
Overnight 50 on $ES & Retracement during RTH
The overnight 50 fib seems to be a magnet for price action to get to in the early part of the RTH. Will start chronicling this here. It should provide a nice edge for trading $SPY options off the open.
Tuesday Nov 29 — overnight 50 tagged during the 10.25am 5 min candle:
Monday Nov 28 — overnight 50 tagged immediately off opening 5 min candle. This left a large FVG below, which i ignored to my detriment and got smoked going long on the retracement:
Friday, November 18, 2022
Overnight flush or rips.
This has to be remembered. They both retraced to the over night 50. Yesterday, then today. $SPY 395s went from 62c to 1.34. Man, you gotta HODL.
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