Dump City

 Yesterday we opened with the  NY Midnight Open, 830 news drop and o/n 50 all clustered around $399.50 on $SPY. There was also trendline resistance and at open, price popped about 40 cents, tested $400 and commenced an all day dump. Small Judas over midnight open and none over 830 gave the clue we’d sell. I shoulda held at least 2-4 short contracts all day. Wow. Also a little bummed I didn’t sell $395 as that set was 🔑 

Overnight 50 for Monday Dec 5

 Missed it by 2.5 on ES. Not sure that “counts”. It did put me in a green trade off open, then i got faked on the pullback, thinking it would blast higher. It didn’t. 

Trend Days (Resources)

 https://twitter.com/soltradez/status/1599948235392503808?s=21

https://twitter.com/soltradez/status/1568650755766099970?s=21

Friday Last Week

 Hit O/N 50 in 7 minutes. That’s 10 trading days in a row. 

For today. I’d love to see an open around $405 on $SPY. Will take $413 or 415 for next monday. Large position, 50-125 contracts. 

Next time J Powell Speaks

 Trade the chart. Look at the $SPY 1 hr. Was that a bearish set up? Powell was just the catalyst for a bullish set up. 

More on Overnight 50 Retracements

More backtesting on this.

 Weds last week: opened just below the overnight 50 and hit it in the first minute and eventually retraced to it after a breakout at 11.55 am (5 min candle):

Light purple is midnight open, dark purple is RTH, white is midnight open NYT and 830 news drop, blue line is overnight 50 fib. 

Tuesday (11/22) last week, just missed the 50 by a tick, but was very close. Short off open targeting the 50 was the trade despite the gap up. Got to the 50 in about 10 minutes (2nd 5 min candle). 

Monday last week - pop off open and then retrace to the o/n 50 in six minutes. That would have been a little harder of a trade than the rest, but now we have gone back a full trading week and it’s hit the 50 every time. I know on Friday the 18, it did it as well as Thursday the 17th. So from 11/17 to 11/30, the overnight 50 retraced during RTH every single time. The longest it took to get there was one hour. Most times it gets there within the first 15 minutes. 

Overnight 50 on $ES & Retracement during RTH

 The overnight 50 fib seems to be a magnet for price action to get to in the early part of the RTH. Will start chronicling this here. It should provide a nice edge for trading $SPY options off the open. 

Tuesday Nov 29 — overnight 50 tagged during the 10.25am 5 min candle:

Monday Nov 28 — overnight 50 tagged immediately off opening 5 min candle. This left a large FVG below, which i ignored to my detriment and got smoked going long on the retracement:

Overnight flush or rips.

 This has to be remembered. They both retraced to the over night 50. Yesterday, then today. $SPY 395s went from 62c to 1.34. Man, you gotta HODL. 

In the Green

 

What a month! For the first time since i started a trading account, i was able to make a withdrawal this week. Those big drop offs that can be seen on the graph above are all but eliminated. Man, success here feels so good. It’s been a long long journey to get to the point where i can make some money trading. I blew up two accounts and when I started my third, I was was making two steps forward and three back all of the time. Things really clicked in July and I got too aggressive on a few trades. August was my first ever green month. Then barely red in September (but never shoulda gotten red to begin with; i over-traded many days). Now, in October, the ICT videos clicked and it almost all came together. November should be even better. My goal is $5,000. 

Taking Longs on a Red Day

 

$SPY $390 was the area to go long yesterday and with three chances i let them all go. Why? Same reason it was hard to go short at $430. Fear of continuation. $BAC was also a nice long at the lows yesterday. It couldn’t break thru that bull flag consolidation from a few weeks back (and it wasn’t going to on one touch). It moved up $1 from the lows. You can also see the 88 EMA moving up toward the 142 which is signaling a change of momo. 

$BAC hammered off the consolidation pattern. What did you think it would do? Slice right thru it? Come on now. 

Green is Green

 

August has been my first green month since the penny mania of early 2021. I finally learned to trade. However, I’ve gone back to some bad habits since the first week of the month. The last few days are perfect examples — not trading the trend on Friday or yesterday cause of “oversold RSI”. I marked this one hour bear flag trendline in premarket (in purple). Once that broke, it was a put party. Here was an opportunity to take 20 put contracts and ride them wayyyy down into Friday’s low. I didn’t do that. Then i chased at the bottom and got smoked on the reversal. -$185 for yesterday after starting out +$140. I executed a nice bear flag breakdown later in the day and that’s exactly the trade I need to be taking every single time (see below). One problem i need to address readily is that when i nail a trade, i get back in too soon wanting to hit that high of winning again and it causes a big fat loser for lack of patience. $398.47 was a key fifty fib from weeks ago that $SPY kept rejecting and had i entered on the rejection rather than chasing, I’d have ended up really really green yesterday despite the mostly choppy day after the first hour. 

No reason i can’t finish the month with a $300 day and close the week and month out really strong. Watch the fifties. No trades without trendlines. No chasing puts or calls at supply or demand zones. If you wanna throw 10 put contracts out on a dump or LOD, probably best to take calls on that hard bounce as it comes into demand. 

Tuesday IWM Gap Up

 

On Friday, $IWM had an inside day. Tuesday morning, it gapped up big. Right off open it came down into daily 2-U trigger and ran about $3 up to $170.08. On gap ups watch for retest and break higher. These do work out nicely. I traded this on the way up, but I didn’t HODL to my PT 🎯, which was in fact, $170. 

Green Streak

 

Trading $SPY yesterday off open. I used the premarket candles to draw a trendline that was useful off open. The first 15 min candle rejected initially and I went short at $3.94. Within seconds it was $4.20 and I sold. 

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Other notes: on fifth 15 min candle we got to NHOD and at a key level i thought going short was the play. I didn’t execute as I am working in a more patient mindset — observing and memorizing so as to be more automatic in the future. This was the right trade as a nearly $4 move down occurred within seven candles (105 minutes). Hit magnitude again later in the day and did not go short on it at NHOD around 2.30pm; once again, this will be memorized. I actually did try to go short here in TD acct, but it was inaccessible due to a transfer. 

Later in the day, $spy had a 2-1 on the hourly. That had a great move upwards. I was too focused on $appl and missed this. The move up was about $1.20. I was focused on $appl because the compression on the hourly looked better at the time, but in hindsight, it began to expand too close to the hourly close for the r/r to be worth it. It did, however, hit the PT.