Dump City (2)

 

Here is the same model as December 7 (last post here). Small Judas over midnight, none over 830 and sell, sell, sell. I had the day marked as a trend down day and ignored it. One small trade long on an incorrect reversal and stopped out for -$104. 

Dump City

 Yesterday we opened with the  NY Midnight Open, 830 news drop and o/n 50 all clustered around $399.50 on $SPY. There was also trendline resistance and at open, price popped about 40 cents, tested $400 and commenced an all day dump. Small Judas over midnight open and none over 830 gave the clue we’d sell. I shoulda held at least 2-4 short contracts all day. Wow. Also a little bummed I didn’t sell $395 as that set was 🔑 

Overnight 50 for Monday Dec 5

 Missed it by 2.5 on ES. Not sure that “counts”. It did put me in a green trade off open, then i got faked on the pullback, thinking it would blast higher. It didn’t. 

Trend Days (Resources)

 https://twitter.com/soltradez/status/1599948235392503808?s=21

https://twitter.com/soltradez/status/1568650755766099970?s=21

Friday Last Week

 Hit O/N 50 in 7 minutes. That’s 10 trading days in a row. 

For today. I’d love to see an open around $405 on $SPY. Will take $413 or 415 for next monday. Large position, 50-125 contracts. 

Next time J Powell Speaks

 Trade the chart. Look at the $SPY 1 hr. Was that a bearish set up? Powell was just the catalyst for a bullish set up. 

More on Overnight 50 Retracements

More backtesting on this.

 Weds last week: opened just below the overnight 50 and hit it in the first minute and eventually retraced to it after a breakout at 11.55 am (5 min candle):

Light purple is midnight open, dark purple is RTH, white is midnight open NYT and 830 news drop, blue line is overnight 50 fib. 

Tuesday (11/22) last week, just missed the 50 by a tick, but was very close. Short off open targeting the 50 was the trade despite the gap up. Got to the 50 in about 10 minutes (2nd 5 min candle). 

Monday last week - pop off open and then retrace to the o/n 50 in six minutes. That would have been a little harder of a trade than the rest, but now we have gone back a full trading week and it’s hit the 50 every time. I know on Friday the 18, it did it as well as Thursday the 17th. So from 11/17 to 11/30, the overnight 50 retraced during RTH every single time. The longest it took to get there was one hour. Most times it gets there within the first 15 minutes. 

Overnight 50 on $ES & Retracement during RTH

 The overnight 50 fib seems to be a magnet for price action to get to in the early part of the RTH. Will start chronicling this here. It should provide a nice edge for trading $SPY options off the open. 

Tuesday Nov 29 — overnight 50 tagged during the 10.25am 5 min candle:

Monday Nov 28 — overnight 50 tagged immediately off opening 5 min candle. This left a large FVG below, which i ignored to my detriment and got smoked going long on the retracement:

Overnight flush or rips.

 This has to be remembered. They both retraced to the over night 50. Yesterday, then today. $SPY 395s went from 62c to 1.34. Man, you gotta HODL. 

In the Green

 

What a month! For the first time since i started a trading account, i was able to make a withdrawal this week. Those big drop offs that can be seen on the graph above are all but eliminated. Man, success here feels so good. It’s been a long long journey to get to the point where i can make some money trading. I blew up two accounts and when I started my third, I was was making two steps forward and three back all of the time. Things really clicked in July and I got too aggressive on a few trades. August was my first ever green month. Then barely red in September (but never shoulda gotten red to begin with; i over-traded many days). Now, in October, the ICT videos clicked and it almost all came together. November should be even better. My goal is $5,000.